Weather Forecast for Guardians vs Rays – July 12, 2024

Cleveland Guardians

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Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays will host the Cleveland Guardians on July 12, 2024, at Tropicana Field in the first game of their series. The Rays, with a 46-47 record, are having an average season, while the Guardians are excelling with a 57-35 record. Despite the disparity in team records, the pitching matchup offers an intriguing storyline.

The Rays are turning to Taj Bradley, who has been solid this season with a 3.23 ERA. Bradley’s advanced metrics, though, suggest he’s been a bit fortunate, with a 4.27 xERA indicating potential regression. However, Bradley is ranked as the 63rd best starting pitcher in MLB, highlighting his above-average performance overall. In his last outing on July 6, Bradley pitched six strong innings, allowing just one earned run while striking out five. Bradley’s high strikeout rate (30.6 K%) could be neutralized by the Guardians’ lineup, which ranks 4th in fewest strikeouts.

On the other side, Carlos Carrasco will start for the Guardians. Carrasco has struggled this season with a 5.22 ERA, although his 4.24 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Carrasco’s projections are not favorable, with an expected 4.9 innings pitched and 2.7 earned runs allowed. In his last start on July 7, Carrasco went five innings, giving up three earned runs.

Offensively, the Rays rank 22nd in MLB, struggling in most categories except stolen bases, where they rank 5th. Isaac Paredes has been their standout hitter with 15 home runs and a .263 batting average. Yandy Diaz has been hot lately, batting .348 with a 1.032 OPS over the last week.

The Guardians boast a more balanced offense, ranking 12th overall and 9th in home runs. Jose Ramirez leads the way with 23 home runs and 18 stolen bases, along with a .272 batting average. Josh Naylor has also been productive recently, hitting .304 with two home runs and seven RBIs over the past week.

Both bullpens are strong, with the Rays ranked 8th and the Guardians 4th in MLB. The betting odds favor the Rays with a -140 moneyline and an implied win probability of 56%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Rays a 60% chance of winning, suggesting some value in backing Tampa Bay in this matchup.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• It may be smart to expect worse results for the Cleveland Guardians offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 2nd-luckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 58 of their last 91 games (+22.10 Units / 20% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games (+12.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Josh Lowe has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.45 Units / 62% ROI)