Yankees vs D-Backs Bets and Betting Trends – 9/18/26

New York Yankees

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Arizona Diamondbacks

New York Yankees Insights

• Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Gerrit Cole has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 52.7% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Cody Bellinger may have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-130)
  The 4th-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the New York Yankees.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest among all the teams in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Despite posting a .375 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Gabriel Moreno has had positive variance on his side given the .037 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .338.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 35 games (+13.35 Units / 30% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+8.45 Units / 32% ROI)
• Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Gabriel Moreno has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+8.45 Units / 50% ROI)