See the Updated Player Rankings for Nationals vs Cardinals - September 18, 2026

-110O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-110

Cade Cavalli – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
With a 0.58 difference between Cade Cavalli’s 10.60 K/9 and his 10.02 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball this year when it comes to strikeouts and figures to negatively regress in future games.
Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
Keibert Ruiz has been lucky this year, posting a .336 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .293 — a .043 disparity.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Dylan Crews – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
Dylan Crews hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Kyle Leahy – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
Kyle Leahy’s 2179-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a significant 195-rpm decline from last year’s 2374-rpm figure.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-110/-120)
Nolan Gorman has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (69% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
The St. Louis Cardinals have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nolan Gorman, Pedro Pages, Joshua Baez, Jordan Walker).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 40 games (+7.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.80 Units / 28% ROI)

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