See the Updated Player Rankings for Nationals vs Cardinals - September 18, 2026

-110O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-110

Cade Cavalli – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
With a 0.58 difference between Cade Cavalli’s 10.60 K/9 and his 10.02 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball this year when it comes to strikeouts and figures to negatively regress in future games.
Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Dylan Crews – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
Dylan Crews hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Kyle Leahy – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Kyle Leahy’s 2179-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a significant 195-rpm decline from last year’s 2374-rpm figure.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
In the last week, Ivan Herrera’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.4% down to 0%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
The St. Louis Cardinals have done a poor job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 12.5° figure is among the lowest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season (#26 overall).
Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 40 games (+7.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.80 Units / 28% ROI)
Thomas Saggese – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
Thomas Saggese has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.25 Units / 35% ROI)

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