Yankees vs D-Backs Bets and Betting Trends - 9/18/26

-130O/U: 8
(-110/-110)+110

Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Gerrit Cole has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 52.7% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
Cody Bellinger may have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
The New York Yankees have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Aaron Judge, Austin Wells, Spencer Jones).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
Out of all starting pitchers, Eduardo Rodriguez’s fastball velocity of 91.5 mph ranks in the 11th percentile this year.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
Despite posting a .375 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Gabriel Moreno has had positive variance on his side given the .037 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .338.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen grades out as the best out of all MLB teams.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 35 games (+13.35 Units / 30% ROI)
Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+8.45 Units / 32% ROI)
Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-140)
Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.40 Units / 37% ROI)

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