Game Time for Phillies vs Mets – 9/18/2026

Philadelphia Phillies

@

New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• José Urquidy – Over/Under Strikeouts
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Jose Urquidy in the 7th percentile when assessing his strikeout ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Edmundo Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Edmundo Sosa has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 94.8-mph average to last season’s 90.8-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• It may be smart to expect positive regression for the Philadelphia Phillies offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 9th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

New York Mets Insights

• Zach Thornton – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Zachary Thornton’s fastball velocity of 91.6 mph is in the 19th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+8.45 Units / 33% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+6.05 Units / 50% ROI)
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+6.50 Units / 13% ROI)