
Detroit Tigers
@

Chicago White Sox
+110O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-130
(-110/-110)-130
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Andrew Sears – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)Andrew Sears has been given less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 14 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Riley Greene – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)Riley Greene has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.2-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal 90.5-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The 8.2% Barrel% of the Detroit Tigers grades them out as the #9 offense in the game this year by this metric.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- David Sandlin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)David Sandlin has experienced some positive variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, putting up an 8.60 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.03 — a 0.57 K/9 disparity.Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Colson Montgomery pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.8% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-185)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 45 away games (+8.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- Kevin McGonigle – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+480/-800)Kevin McGonigle has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+9.40 Units / 94% ROI)
