
Detroit Tigers
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Chicago White Sox
+110O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-130
(-110/-110)-130
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Andrew Sears – Over/Under Pitching OutsAndrew Sears has been given less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 14 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Javier Baez – Over/Under Total BasesJavier Baez’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 91.2-mph EV last year has decreased to 85.6-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- The 8.2% Barrel% of the Detroit Tigers grades them out as the #9 offense in the game this year by this metric.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- David Sandlin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)David Sandlin has experienced some positive variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, putting up an 8.60 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.03 — a 0.57 K/9 disparity.Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)Miguel Vargas pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.8% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
