Get the Latest Score Updates for Cubs vs Reds - Friday September 18, 2026

-130O/U: 8.5
(-120/+100)+110

Clay Holmes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
Clay Holmes’s sinker usage has jumped by 8.8% from last year to this one (40.4% to 49.2%) .
Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
Pete Crow-Armstrong has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.3-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 90.6-mph figure.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-130)
The best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Chicago Cubs.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Chase Burns – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
Out of all SPs, Chase Burns’s fastball spin rate of 2632 rpm ranks in the 97th percentile this year.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
Typically, batters like Elly De La Cruz who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Clay Holmes.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
The Cincinnati Reds bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+11.40 Units / 35% ROI)

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