Game Breakdown: Pirates vs Cubs Head-to-Head Insights 9/13/2026

+135O/U: 7
(-110/-110)-155

Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Bubba Chandler has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 56.5% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
Billy Cook – Over/Under Total Bases
Billy Cook is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#1-best of all teams on the slate).
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
Ryan O’Hearn has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-155)
Out of all the teams playing today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Chicago Cubs.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
Alex Bregman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
In the last 7 days, Alex Bregman’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.7% down to 0%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-155)
The 5th-best projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the the Chicago Cubs.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games (+6.40 Units / 24% ROI)
Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.60 Units / 52% ROI)
Rafael Flores – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-160)
Rafael Flores has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 away games (+7.00 Units / 27% ROI)

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