Understand the Game Breakdown: Astros vs Orioles Head-to-Head Insights August 22nd, 2024

Houston Astros

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Houston Astros on August 22, 2024, fans are eager to see how both teams respond after recent disappointing performances. The Orioles, currently holding a strong 74-54 record, maintain their position in the playoff race, while the Astros sit at 68-58, battling to stay relevant as the season winds down.

In their most recent outings, both teams were unable to secure victories; the Orioles fell to the New York Mets 4-3, while the Astros dropped a 4-1 contest to the Boston Red Sox. Notably, Orioles starter Corbin Burnes, ranked as the 25th best pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, looks to bounce back after a rough outing where he surrendered 8 earned runs in just 4 innings on August 16. Conversely, the Astros’ Spencer Arrighetti, whose performance is considered below average this season with a 5.20 ERA, managed to pitch 6 innings with 4 earned runs in his last start.

The Orioles have been exceptionally powerful this season, leading the league with 157 home runs, while their offense ranks 2nd overall in MLB. This combination could be problematic for Arrighetti, who is prone to allowing fly balls, presenting an enticing opportunity for the Orioles’ sluggers.

Despite their recent struggles, projections indicate a favorable outcome for Baltimore, with their offensive strength and advantageous matchup against a struggling pitcher giving them the edge. With the current odds favoring the Orioles at a moneyline of -155 and an average implied team total of 4.11 runs, they are primed to regain momentum against the Astros in this crucial series opener.

Houston Astros Insights

• Spencer Arrighetti – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Ranking in the 79th percentile, Spencer Arrighetti posted a 12.4% Swinging Strike% this year.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Alex Bregman has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.8-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 89.2-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  In today’s matchup, Jose Altuve is at a disadvantage facing the league’s deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.6% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Corbin Burnes – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+140/-180)
  Compared to average, Corbin Burnes has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an additional 3.8 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Ramon Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Batters such as Ramon Urias with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Spencer Arrighetti who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (-160)
  The 2nd-best projected batting order of the day in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+130)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 47 of their last 83 games (+16.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 108 games (+17.60 Units / 15% ROI)
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+125/-160)
  Anthony Santander has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.70 Units / 40% ROI)