Picks and Betting Guide for Blue Jays vs Athletics - Monday, September 07, 2026

-205O/U: 8.5
(-105/-115)+175

Dylan Cease – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+160/-210)
Dylan Cease has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 10.1 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starter.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Ernie Clement – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
Ernie Clement has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.1-mph dropping to 79.9-mph in the last 14 days.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen grades out as the 5th-best among all MLB teams.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Jacob Lopez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
Jacob Lopez has used his cut-fastball 6.2% more often this year (20.4%) than he did last season (14.2%).
Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
Donovan Walton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
Despite posting a .360 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Donovan Walton has been lucky given the .068 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .292.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Henry Bolte – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
Today, Henry Bolte is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.1% rate (98th percentile).
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.70 Units / 37% ROI)
Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-205)
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 away games (+6.90 Units / 33% ROI)
Zack Gelof – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+160/-205)
Zack Gelof has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+14.70 Units / 52% ROI)

WriteNow™ by EV Analytics