
Baltimore Orioles
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Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Chris Bassitt – Over/Under StrikeoutsIt may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Chris Bassitt has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 7.2% more often this year (56.4%) than he did last year (49.2%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Christian Franklin – Over/Under HitsChristian Franklin is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Baltimore Orioles – 2H MoneylineThe Baltimore Orioles bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Out of every team in action today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the Tampa Bay Rays.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Liam Hicks – Over/Under Total BasesLiam Hicks’s average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 84.9-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 74.1-mph over the last 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under Total BasesYandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay Rays – MoneylineThe Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 22 games (+12.90 Units / 41% ROI)
- Baltimore Orioles – Run LineThe Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 away games (+4.80 Units / 18% ROI)
