Pittsburgh Pirates
@
Miami Marlins
-130O/U: 8
(-110/-110)+110
(-110/-110)+110
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Esmerlyn Valdez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)Esmerlyn Valdez is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Pittsburgh Pirates in today’s game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .313, which is considerably lower than their actual wOBA of .325 this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Tyler Phillips – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)Tyler Phillips has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 21.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.