Player Analysis for Brewers vs Padres – August 12, 2026

Milwaukee Brewers

@

San Diego Padres

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  In his last GS, Dustin May conceded a whopping 6 earned runs.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Jackson Chourio has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph to 96.5-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Jackson Chourio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.1% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Robbie Ray – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Robbie Ray (40.5% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 5 GB hitters in Milwaukee’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ty France – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ty France’s true offensive talent to be a .324, suggesting that he has been lucky this year given the .040 difference between that figure and his actual .364 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• The San Diego Padres (20.1 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 5th-least strikeout-prone lineup of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.