See the Updated Player Rankings for Orioles vs Twins – August 12, 2026

Baltimore Orioles

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Minnesota Twins

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Shane Baz’s curveball rate has spiked by 5.8% from last season to this one (26.9% to 32.7%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Jackson Holliday is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Zebby Matthews – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Zebby Matthews’s fastball velocity has fallen 1 mph this year (94.6 mph) below where it was last year (95.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Royce Lewis – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Royce Lewis has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.7-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 90.3-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Ryan Kreidler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Ryan Kreidler hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 81st percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+7.70 Units / 35% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+5.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-150)
  Kody Clemens has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.45 Units / 25% ROI)