Learn About Pirates vs Marlins Picks and Betting Trends - Wednesday August 12, 2026

+105O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-125

Carmen Mlodzinski – Over/Under 12.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-145)
Carmen Mlodzinski has recorded 14.5 outs per game per started this year, placing in the 21st percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
Henry Davis has been unlucky this year, posting a .264 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .314 — a .050 difference.
Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
The underlying talent of the Pittsburgh Pirates projected batting order today (.313 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably worse than their .325 wOBA this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Janson Junk – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
Janson Junk has used his slider 8.4% less often this season (34.1%) than he did last season (42.5%).
Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
Griffin Conine – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
Griffin Conine is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
The 6.7% Barrel% of the Miami Marlins makes them the #27 team in the game this year by this standard.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-125)
The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+11.20 Units / 31% ROI)
Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 41% ROI)
Griffin Conine – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+460/-750)
Griffin Conine has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games at home (+7.40 Units / 123% ROI)

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