Find the Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Braves vs Mets – 7/28/26

Atlanta Braves

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New York Mets

The Atlanta Braves (62-44) will battle the New York Mets (45-62) on Wednesday Night. Oddsmakers peg the Braves as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 59%, leaving the Mets with a 41% chance to record a win. Based on the current odds the Braves have an implied team total of 4.11 compared to 3.39 for the Mets.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Chris Sale – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  The New York Mets have 8 bats in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage over Chris Sale in today’s game, which is especially troublesome given his huge platoon split.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Extreme flyball bats like Mike Yastrzemski tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Christian Scott.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Drake Baldwin – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Drake Baldwin has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Francisco Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Francisco Alvarez is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• It may be sensible to expect stronger performance for the New York Mets offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-145)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.10 Units / 24% ROI)
• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-195)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+7.55 Units / 26% ROI)
• Drake Baldwin – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-110/-120)
  Drake Baldwin has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+7.65 Units / 34% ROI)