Score for Padres vs Marlins Game - July 26, 2026

-105O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-115

Walker Buehler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
Out of all starting pitchers, Walker Buehler’s fastball spin rate of 2165 rpm grades out in the 22nd percentile this year.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Gavin Sheets – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
Gavin Sheets has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (66% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
It may be sensible to expect better results for the San Diego Padres offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 5th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.
Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Janson Junk – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
Janson Junk is projected to strikeout 4 batters in this matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
Heriberto Hernandez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
Heriberto Hernandez has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 92.5-mph EV.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Miami Marlins hitters as a group grade out 27th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when judging by their 6.9% Barrel%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games at home (+9.40 Units / 39% ROI)
San Diego Padres – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.25 Units / 37% ROI)
Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-140/+110)
Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+7.90 Units / 22% ROI)

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