Cubs vs Pirates Insights and Game Breakdown – 7/26/2026

Chicago Cubs

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+120)
  The Chicago Cubs infield defense profiles as the best among every team today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Carson Kelly’s average exit velocity has declined of late; his 87.9-mph seasonal average has fallen to 81.2-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Seiya Suzuki ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Tallying 17.4 outs per GS this year on average, Braxton Ashcraft places in the 85th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Shawn Ross – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Chicago’s #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Shawn Ross, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Pittsburgh Pirates in this game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .308, which is considerably lower than their actual wOBA of .331 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.75 Units / 25% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+120)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 away games (+8.70 Units / 51% ROI)
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+130/-170)
  Ian Happ has hit the Walks Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+10.05 Units / 99% ROI)