Reds vs Cardinals Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – 7/24/2026

Cincinnati Reds

@

St. Louis Cardinals

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Rhett Lowder – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  Generating 13.9 outs per GS this year on average, Rhett Lowder places him the 13th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Dane Myers has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (59% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Elly De La Cruz hits many of his flyballs to center field (55.7% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Dustin May – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Dustin May’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (55.2% vs. 50.2% last season) ought to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jimmy Crooks III – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Jimmy Crooks has seen a big gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.9-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.7-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 20% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+6.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-155/+120)
  Jordan Walker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.80 Units / 43% ROI)