Check the Injuries Update for Pirates vs Yankees – 7/21/2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

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New York Yankees

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Out of all starters, Bubba Chandler’s fastball velocity of 97.9 mph grades out in the 99th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+160/-210)
  Jake Mangum is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The underlying talent of the Pittsburgh Pirates projected batting order today (.314 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .335 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Will Warren will ring up an average of 5.5 strikeouts in this game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Jose Caballero – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Jose Caballero’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 86.1-mph EV last season has dropped off to 83.6-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Yankees bullpen grades out as the 8th-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+10.65 Units / 29% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.70 Units / 43% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.35 Units / 41% ROI)