
Baltimore Orioles
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Houston Astros
+105O/U: 8.5
(-105/-115)-125
(-105/-115)-125
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Brandon Young – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Brandon Young’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this year (54.1 vs. 43.8% last year) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Dylan Beavers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)Dylan Beavers has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (56% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Baltimore Orioles – 2H MoneylineThe Baltimore Orioles bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Houston Astros Insights
- Hunter Brown – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Among all SPs, Hunter Brown’s fastball velocity of 95.3 mph is in the 81st percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- LaMonte Wade Jr – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)The Baltimore Orioles have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so LaMonte Wade Jr. can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (46.3% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Houston Astros – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+5.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+6.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- Jose Altuve – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-120/-110)Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+6.85 Units / 29% ROI)
