Player Props for Pirates vs Guardians – Sunday July 19, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Cleveland Guardians

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Paul Skenes’s 96.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.2-mph decrease from last season’s 97.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen projects as the 6th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Joey Cantillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Joey Cantillo is projected to strikeout 6.2 hitters in today’s matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Steven Kwan has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (51% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Gabriel Arias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Gabriel Arias has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 6th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+3.95 Units / 23% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.20 Units / 26% ROI)
• Esmerlyn Valdez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.95 Units / 38% ROI)