Get Expert Player Predictions for Orioles vs Astros – Friday July 17, 2026

Baltimore Orioles

@

Houston Astros

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Dean Kremer – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Compared to the average hurler, Dean Kremer has been given an above-average leash since the start of last season, recording an extra 3.2 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  The Baltimore Orioles bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Houston Astros Insights

• Peter Lambert – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Due to his reverse platoon split, Peter Lambert should be in good shape facing 6 hitters in the projected offense who bat from the opposite side today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  When estimating his batting average ability, Yordan Alvarez is projected as the best batter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (46.7% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+5.70 Units / 37% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-145)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 14 away games (+3.60 Units / 22% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+9.45 Units / 18% ROI)