Red Sox vs Mets Best Bets and Expert Picks – Sunday July 12, 2026

Boston Red Sox

@

New York Mets

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Payton Tolle – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Considering that groundball hitters perform worse against groundball pitchers, Payton Tolle (39.8% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 GB hitters in the opposing club’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Boston Red Sox bullpen projects as the best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• Zach Thornton – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  With 7 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Zachary Thornton will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Zack Short – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+340/-500)
  Zack Short is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Boston (#1-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Zack Short – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+340/-500)
  Zack Short hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.