Team Stats and Insights for Cubs vs Reds Match Preview - 7/11/2026

-120O/U: 10
(-110/-110)+100

Javier Assad – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Javier Assad’s high utilization percentage of his fastball (58.6% this year) is likely harming his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
Despite posting a .396 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Pete Crow-Armstrong has experienced some positive variance given the .046 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .350.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a lot of his flyballs (41% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (+100)
Out of all the teams in action today, the 4th-worst outfield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
TJ Friedl is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
It may be best to expect better results for the Cincinnati Reds offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.
Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+7.15 Units / 31% ROI)
Chicago Cubs – Run Line -1.5 (+130)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 17 away games (+6.35 Units / 28% ROI)
TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+7.05 Units / 33% ROI)

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