Milwaukee Brewers
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Sal Frelick – Over/Under Total BasesSal Frelick’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 88.2-mph average last year has dropped off to 84.8-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Brice Turang – Over/Under Total BasesBrice Turang has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-deepest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Ivan Herrera – Over/Under Total BasesBatters such as Ivan Herrera with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Robert Gasser who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- St. Louis’s 12.2° launch angle (a reliable stat to study the ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the lowest in baseball this year: #26 overall.Explain: A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under Game TotalThe St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team TotalThe Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+9.45 Units / 22% ROI)