Detroit Tigers
@
Texas Rangers
+115O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-135
(-110/-110)-135
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Colt Keith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)In today’s game, Colt Keith is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.3% rate (83rd percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Nathan Eovaldi – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Nathan Eovaldi (47.7% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in Detroit’s projected lineup.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Nicky Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)Typically, batters like Nicky Lopez who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Framber Valdez.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Texas Rangers today holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .296, which is a good deal worse than their actual wOBA of .312 this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Texas Rangers – Moneyline (-135)The Texas Rangers have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 30 games (+5.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+6.40 Units / 23% ROI)