Player Trends for Mets vs Blue Jays – Monday, June 29th, 2026

New York Mets

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Toronto Blue Jays

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Sean Manaea’s sinker usage has jumped by 24.7% from last year to this one (0.4% to 25.1%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Mark Vientos has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York’s 89.5-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in Major League Baseball: #4 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  In his last GS, Trey Yesavage turned in a great performance and conceded 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Alejandro Kirk’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 85.3-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 82.3-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.