Dodgers vs Padres Game Time – 6/28/2026

Los Angeles Dodgers

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San Diego Padres

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Emmet Sheehan – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Emmet Sheehan’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this year (93.8 mph) below where it was last season (95 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Shohei Ohtani has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.1-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 93.9-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Max Muncy pulls many of his flyballs (40.9% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Michael King – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Michael King has been given an above-average leash this year, throwing 3.0 more adjusted pitches-per-start than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Hitters such as Xander Bogaerts with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Emmet Sheehan who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be best to expect better numbers for the San Diego Padres offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Run Line +1.5 (-140)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+3.90 Units / 20% ROI)
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 away games (+10.15 Units / 12% ROI)
• Freddy Fermin – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Freddy Fermin has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+16.10 Units / 53% ROI)