Player Trends for Mets vs Blue Jays - Monday, June 29th, 2026

+110O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-130

Sean Manaea – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
Sean Manaea’s sinker usage has jumped by 24.7% from last year to this one (0.4% to 25.1%) .
Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
Mark Vientos has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (66% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
The New York Mets bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
In his last GS, Trey Yesavage turned in a great performance and conceded 0 ER.
Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
Alejandro Kirk’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 85.3-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 82.3-mph in the past week.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 25 games (+4.15 Units / 15% ROI)
New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 30 away games (+9.45 Units / 27% ROI)
Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+14.25 Units / 51% ROI)

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