Explore D-Backs vs Rays Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 6/28/2026

Arizona Diamondbacks

@

Tampa Bay Rays

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Merrill Kelly has tallied 17.5 outs per outing this year, checking in at the 85th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Geraldo Perdomo has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.7-mph dropping to 80.7-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Arizona Diamondbacks bats jointly rank among the worst in MLB this year ( 7th-worst) as far as their 88.3-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Drew Rasmussen has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 9.6% more often this year (51.4%) than he did last season (41.8%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+19.60 Units / 33% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 35 games (+14.35 Units / 35% ROI)
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+135/-180)
  Cedric Mullins has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.75 Units / 77% ROI)