Blue Jays vs Red Sox Game Time – 6/18/2026

Toronto Blue Jays

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Boston Red Sox

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Trey Yesavage – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Trey Yesavage has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an -14.1 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Nathan Lukes – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Nathan Lukes has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (71% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Sonny Gray’s cutter percentage has increased by 8% from last year to this one (12.6% to 20.6%) .
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Wilyer Abreu stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Boston Red Sox have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+11.45 Units / 33% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (+120)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 away games (+4.65 Units / 40% ROI)
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)
  Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+4.65 Units / 15% ROI)