See the Odds and Betting Tips for Pirates vs Athletics – June 17th, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Athletics

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  When estimating his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Braxton Ashcraft in the 90th percentile among all starting pitchers in the majors.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Jake Mangum tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Aaron Civale.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Henry Davis pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.4% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Athletics Insights

• Aaron Civale – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Aaron Civale’s 2396-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 77th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Jonah Heim has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (83% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Today’s version of the Athletics projected batting order is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .324 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .340 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 30 games at home (+2.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 40 away games (+5.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+10.70 Units / 41% ROI)