
Colorado Rockies
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Chicago Cubs
+190O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)-220
(-110/-110)-220
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-165/+125)Michael Lorenzen’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (64.7% vs. 59.7% last season) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)Jake McCarthy is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Chicago (#1-best of all teams on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)Hunter Goodman pulls many of his flyballs (39.8% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+130/-165)Shota Imanaga’s 91.2-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1-mph rise from last year’s 90.2-mph mark.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
- Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)Nico Hoerner has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (88% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-220)The Chicago Cubs projected offense projects as the 2nd-strongest of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+6.85 Units / 35% ROI)
- Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+110)The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 15 away games (+3.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+130/-170)Ian Happ has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+14.40 Units / 35% ROI)
