New York Mets
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Cincinnati Reds
+115O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-135
(-110/-110)-135
New York Mets Insights
- Tobias Myers – Over/Under Pitching OutsThe leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Tobias Myers to have a pitch count in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 70 pitches.Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- New York’s 89.6-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in Major League Baseball: #4 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Chase Burns – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)With 6 bats of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Chase Burns will be at a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)Typically, hitters like Eugenio Suarez who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Tobias Myers.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Nate Lowe – Over/Under Total BasesNathaniel Lowe has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.