
Chicago Cubs
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San Francisco Giants
-120O/U: 8
(-110/-110)+100
(-110/-110)+100
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Ben Brown – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)This season, Ben Brown has introduced a new pitch to his repertoire (a sinker), working it in on 17.3% of his pitches.Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, although sinkers are generally one of the least effective pitches.
- Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)Nico Hoerner has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (89% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- The Chicago Cubs have hit 31.1% of their balls in the air 100 mph or faster this year, ranking them as the #7 team in the majors by this metric.Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- San Francisco Giants – Moneyline (+100)The San Francisco Giants outfield defense grades out as the worst out of all the teams playing today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Matt Chapman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)Matt Chapman has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 102.1-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 87.6-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Rafael Devers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Rafael Devers ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+3.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+115)The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+500/-850)Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 away games (+14.40 Units / 160% ROI)
