
Chicago Cubs
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San Francisco Giants
-110O/U: 8.5
(-105/-115)-110
(-105/-115)-110
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-110)The Chicago Cubs infield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest out of every team on the slate today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)San Francisco’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Pete Crow-Armstrong, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Chicago Cubs – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst among all the teams in baseball.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Landen Roupp – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Landen Roupp (46.9% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 2 FB hitters in Chicago’s projected batting order.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Matt Chapman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)Matt Chapman is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Devers in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 35 games (+5.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- Bryce Eldridge – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+540/-950)Bryce Eldridge has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games at home (+16.50 Units / 183% ROI)
