
Washington Nationals
@

San Francisco Giants
-110O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-110
(-110/-110)-110
Washington Nationals Insights
- Foster Griffin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Foster Griffin must realize this, because he has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls a lot this year: 71.2% of the time, placing in the 99th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Nasim Nunez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Extreme flyball hitters like Nasim Nunez tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Robbie Ray.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Curtis Mead – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Curtis Mead has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Robbie Ray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)Robbie Ray’s 92.6-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 23rd percentile out of all SPs.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Daniel Susac – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)Daniel Susac has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 5.7% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past 14 days.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- The San Francisco Giants have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Daniel Susac, Bryce Eldridge, Jonah Cox, Rafael Devers).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+4.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+115)The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 24 away games (+15.45 Units / 53% ROI)
- Dylan Crews – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+580/-1100)Dylan Crews has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 away games (+10.00 Units / 125% ROI)
