
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Arizona Diamondbacks
-140O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)+120
(-110/-110)+120
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Justin Wrobleski – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Justin Wrobleski’s 2429-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 82nd percentile among all SPs.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Freddie Freeman is likely to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Will Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Will Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)Ryne Nelson is an extreme flyball pitcher (39% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #29 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 19.1% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team TotalThe Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 24 games at home (+11.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Run Line -1.5 (+115)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 45 away games (+7.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- Jose Fernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)Jose Fernandez has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+4.70 Units / 15% ROI)
