
San Francisco Giants
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Colorado Rockies
-125O/U: 11
(-110/-110)+105
(-110/-110)+105
San Francisco Giants Insights
- San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)Robbie Ray was on point in his previous GS and conceded 2 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Matt Chapman – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)Matt Chapman has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (80% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- The San Francisco Giants have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Daniel Susac, Bryce Eldridge, Willy Adames).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)Tanner Gordon is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #9 HR venue among all stadiums in this game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Tyler Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Tyler Freeman’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 88.5-mph average last season has dropped off to 86-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Colorado Rockies – 2H MoneylineThe Colorado Rockies bullpen profiles as the worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+3.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team TotalThe San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+135/-170)Jake McCarthy has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+8.45 Units / 56% ROI)
