D-Backs vs Mariners Expert Picks and Betting Tips - Sunday May 31, 2026

+130O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-150

Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
Merrill Kelly was on point in his last start and allowed 2 ER.
Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
Adrian Del Castillo – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+235/-325)
Seattle’s 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Adrian Del Castillo, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Despite technically being the “starter” today, Bryce Miller may not last more than a couple framess since he will be treated as more of an opener.
Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+190/-255)
Luke Raley has made big improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 10.7% rate last season to 20.7% this season.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Mitch Garver – Over/Under Total Bases
Mitch Garver pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.6% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games (+5.15 Units / 12% ROI)
Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 35 away games (+6.05 Units / 16% ROI)
Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+430/-680)
Julio Rodriguez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+15.30 Units / 255% ROI)

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