Starting Lineup for Braves vs Reds - May 29, 2026

-135O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)+115

Grant Holmes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
Placing in the 87th percentile, Grant Holmes put up a 13.3% Swinging Strike percentage this year.
Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
Jorge Mateo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.144) provides evidence that Jorge Mateo has been lucky since the start of last season with his .238 actual batting average.
Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
Atlanta Braves hitters collectively grade out 5th- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 9.9% Barrel%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Chris Paddack – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-175)
Chris Paddack has tallied 13.6 outs per outing this year, checking in at the 9th percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
TJ Friedl has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (88% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in this matchup.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
Nathaniel Lowe has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+8.00 Units / 16% ROI)
Atlanta Braves – Run Line -1.5 (+115)
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 23 away games (+12.00 Units / 43% ROI)
Spencer Steer – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-140)
Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.00 Units / 51% ROI)

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