
Arizona Diamondbacks
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San Francisco Giants
+115O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-135
(-110/-110)-135
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)Merrill Kelly was rolling in his last game started and gave up 2 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Adrian Del Castillo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Extreme flyball hitters like Adrian Del Castillo tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Landen Roupp.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Arizona Diamondbacks batters as a unit rank in the cellar of Major League Baseball this year ( 9th-worst) as it relates to their 88.5-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Landen Roupp – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Landen Roupp (47.6% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today’s game with 2 FB hitters in Arizona’s projected offense.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Matt Chapman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Over the past week, Matt Chapman’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.1% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Bryce Eldridge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)Bryce Eldridge pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.3% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+8.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Run Line +1.5 (-185)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 50 games (+6.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+100/-130)Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+5.95 Units / 20% ROI)
