Recommended Player Prop Bets for Guardians vs Phillies - Friday May 22, 2026

+155O/U: 7
(+100/-120)-180

Gavin Williams – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
Among all starting pitchers, Gavin Williams’s fastball velocity of 95.8 mph ranks in the 81st percentile this year.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Steven Kwan – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
Steven Kwan has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (89% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Gavin Williams – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
Projected catcher Patrick Bailey projects as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Cristopher Sanchez (55.7% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 2 GB hitters in Cleveland’s projected batting order.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Bryson Stott – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+180/-240)
Bryson Stott has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 90-mph average to last season’s 87.6-mph EV.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen projects as the 4th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+5.45 Units / 36% ROI)

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