White Sox vs Mariners Preview and Prediction - Monday May 18th, 2026

+150O/U: 7
(-110/-110)-170

Noah Schultz – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-165/+125)
Compared to the average starting pitcher, Noah Schultz has been given a below-average leash since the start of last season, throwing an -10.6 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
Sam Antonacci – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
Samuel Antonacci has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (54% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
Colson Montgomery pulls many of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Bryan Woo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
Bryan Woo’s sinker rate has dropped by 5.7% from last year to this one (25.7% to 20%) .
Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
J.P. Crawford has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.4-mph average to last season’s 89.7-mph EV.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Positioned 6th-steepest in the majors this year, Seattle Mariners bats collectively have put up a 15° launch angle (an advanced metric to measure the ability to lift the ball for power).
Explain: A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+5.75 Units / 22% ROI)
Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-155/+120)
The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 away games (+7.10 Units / 48% ROI)
Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
Miguel Vargas has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.45 Units / 28% ROI)

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