Player Props Analysis for D-Backs vs Rockies – Sunday May 17th, 2026

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Colorado Rockies

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Mike Soroka – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Michael Soroka’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (55% compared to 45% last year) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Nolan Arenado has posted a .258 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, placing in the 3rd percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ketel Marte in the 97th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  Michael Lorenzen has recorded a .363 BABIP this year, indicating that he has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball on balls in play with improved performance likely coming.
  Explain: Casual fans and the mainstream media don’t realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Mickey Moniak’s launch angle this season (23.4°) is quite a bit higher than his 17.4° mark last year.
  Explain: A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected lineup is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .303 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .322 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.90 Units / 24% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 24 games (+16.45 Units / 59% ROI)
• Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 10 games at home (+8.15 Units / 81% ROI)