Review the Tigers vs Mets Match Preview and Winning Probability – May 14th, 2026

Detroit Tigers

@

New York Mets

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+145)
  In his previous start, Keider Montero was in good form and conceded 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Dillon Dingler – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+220/-300)
  Dillon Dingler has made notable improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 9.2% rate last season to 14.3% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Detroit Tigers have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Spencer Torkelson, Zack Short, Riley Greene).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

New York Mets Insights

• Nolan McLean – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Because flyball batters have a sizeable edge over groundball pitchers, Nolan McLean and his 49.1% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a troublesome position in this outing squaring off against 2 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+210/-285)
  Marcus Semien’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 88.4-mph figure last year has lowered to 85.9-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets bats as a group rank among the elite in the league this year (4th-) when assessing their 89.8-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.