Check the Rankings and Game Forecast: Rays vs Blue Jays Analysis – 5/13/2026

Tampa Bay Rays

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Toronto Blue Jays

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Griffin Jax – Over/Under 13.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Griffin Jax to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 74 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Taylor Walls – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Taylor Walls’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 86.4-mph EV last season has lowered to 81-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen projects as the worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Dylan Cease has relied on his four-seam fastball 5.3% less often this year (36%) than he did last year (41.3%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Extreme groundball batters like Daulton Varsho generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Griffin Jax.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (+125)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 30 games (+16.90 Units / 48% ROI)
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Junior Caminero has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.10 Units / 19% ROI)