Mariners vs White Sox Betting Guide - 5/08/26

-140O/U: 8
(-110/-110)+120

Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
Emerson Hancock has used his change-up 14.3% less often this season (5.9%) than he did last year (20.2%).
Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
Brendan Donovan – Over/Under Hits
Brendan Donovan is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
The 9.2% Barrel% of the Seattle Mariners grades them out as the #10 club in the majors this year by this stat.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Sean Burke – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
Among all starting pitchers, Sean Burke’s fastball spin rate of 2545 rpm ranks in the 96th percentile this year.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
Andrew Benintendi has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.4-mph dropping to 80.3-mph over the past 7 days.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
Colson Montgomery pulls many of his flyballs (39.8% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest RF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.20 Units / 48% ROI)
Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+5.80 Units / 31% ROI)
Josh Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)
Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+6.75 Units / 27% ROI)

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